LAS VEGAS, January 19, 2009 -- The end of the economic recession along with the continuation of low mortgage interest rates and stabilizing housing prices will result in growth in the nation's housing market this year, according to economists speaking at the International Builders' Show in Las Vegas today. But improvements will come slowly, they said, as high unemployment levels continue to discourage consumers and push home foreclosures higher.

"The stage is set for the consumer to return," said David Crowe, chief economist of the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB), and because of the slow pace of the recovery home builders will profit from generally low inflation in building materials prices and wages.

The economists said they expect the extension and expansion of the home buyer tax credit to generate some sales activity in the early months of the year as economic growth gradually kicks in and bolsters an increase in housing activity.

However, Crowe warned that this remains "a cautionary period" for housing, largely because of the discouraging level of joblessness, which he forecast will peak at 10.2 percent in the first quarter and remain elevated, exceeding 8 percent at the end of 2011.

The inability of builders to obtain financing for new residential development is also "a significant retardant to recovery," Crowe said.