As one indicator of the economic outlook for Lamoille County, a building materials supplier in Morrisville says he'll be satisfied if his company records a zero percent growth rate in 2008.

"I'm hoping it won't be worse than that," says Dana Wildes, owner of the Country Home Center.

The 31-year-old firm is already feeling the effects of what Wildes, a Morrisville native, describes as a sharp slowdown in construction activity in the county. The first three quarters of 2007 were "outstanding," but the final quarter was "pathetic," Wildes says. The volume of building materials sold by Country Home Center fell by 17 percent in that period, forcing Wildes to lay off one part-timer and to eliminate overtime for the company's remaining 18 full-time and 2 part-time employees.

More jobs will be in jeopardy if his sales sink lower than he's projecting, Wildes warns.

The steep decline in housing starts in the closing months of 2007 will trigger a downward spiral for businesses like his, he predicts.